Soil-derived Nature's Contributions to People and their contribution to the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

This special issue provides an assessment of the contribution of soils to Nature's Contributions to People (NCP). Here, we combine this assessment and previously published relationships between NCP and delivery on the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to infer contributions of soils to the SDGs. We show that in addition to contributing positively to the delivery of all NCP, soils also have a role in underpinning all SDGs. While highlighting the great potential of soils to contribute to sustainable development, it is recognized that poorly managed, degraded or polluted soils may contribute negatively to both NCP and SDGs. The positive contribution, however, cannot be taken for granted, and soils must be managed carefully to keep them healthy and capable of playing this vital role. A priority for soil management must include: (i) for healthy soils in natural ecosystems, protect them from conversion and degradation; (ii) for managed soils, manage in a way to protect and enhance soil biodiversity, health and sustainability and to prevent degradation; and (iii) for degraded soils, restore to full soil health. We have enough knowledge now to move forward with the implementation of best management practices to maintain and improve soil health. This analysis shows that this is not just desirable, it is essential if we are to meet the SDG targets by 2030 and achieve sustainable development more broadly in the decades to come. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of soils in delivering Nature's Contributions to People'.

Could patterns of animal behaviour cause the observed differences in soil carbon between adjacent irrigated and unirrigated pastures?

Previous soil sampling from grazed pastures in New Zealand compared the changes of soil organic carbon (SOC) in adjacent irrigated and unirrigated portions of the same paddocks. It showed that irrigated portions had lower SOC stocks than unirrigated portions, with an average difference of 7.0 tC ha-1 or 0.6 tC ha-1 yr-1. These findings have formed the basis of an assessment for the net effect of conversion of New Zealand's grazed pastures to irrigation. However, since cattle could move freely between irrigated and unirrigated portions of the studied paddocks, there could have been different grazing intensities and/or excreta transfer between the irrigated and unirrigated portions of the same paddocks. Both these factors could have affected SOC stocks. In this study, we used the process-based model, CenW, to simulate the consequences of this possible carbon transfer via animal excreta and different grazing intensities. We found that the observed increase of 0.6 tC ha-1 yr-1 in SOC stock in the unirrigated portions could result from a transfer of 20% excreta from the irrigated to unirrigated portions (with an area ratio of 6:1) of a paddock and with the unirrigated portions being grazed only lightly with 2.0 tDM ha-1 in foliage biomass residuals remaining after grazing. That means that the observed higher SOC stocks in the unirrigated portions could potentially be attributable to the behaviour of grazing animals. We suggest that a realistic extent of carbon transfer and/or differences in grazing intensities could be sufficient to account for the observed differences in SOC stocks even if irrigation per se caused no differences in carbon stocks. It is therefore inappropriate to ascribe the change of SOC to irrigation effects based on experimental findings where SOC changes can be affected by the behaviour of grazing animals.

Ensemble modelling, uncertainty and robust predictions of organic carbon in long-term bare-fallow soils.

Simulation models represent soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in global carbon (C) cycle scenarios to support climate-change studies. It is imperative to increase confidence in long-term predictions of SOC dynamics by reducing the uncertainty in model estimates. We evaluated SOC simulated from an ensemble of 26 process-based C models by comparing simulations to experimental data from seven long-term bare-fallow (vegetation-free) plots at six sites: Denmark (two sites), France, Russia, Sweden and the United Kingdom. The decay of SOC in these plots has been monitored for decades since the last inputs of plant material, providing the opportunity to test decomposition without the continuous input of new organic material. The models were run independently over multi-year simulation periods (from 28 to 80 years) in a blind test with no calibration (Bln) and with the following three calibration scenarios, each providing different levels of information and/or allowing different levels of model fitting: (a) calibrating decomposition parameters separately at each experimental site (Spe); (b) using a generic, knowledge-based, parameterization applicable in the Central European region (Gen); and (c) using a combination of both (a) and (b) strategies (Mix). We addressed uncertainties from different modelling approaches with or without spin-up initialization of SOC. Changes in the multi-model median (MMM) of SOC were used as descriptors of the ensemble performance. On average across sites, Gen proved adequate in describing changes in SOC, with MMM equal to average SOC (and standard deviation) of 39.2 (±15.5) Mg C/ha compared to the observed mean of 36.0 (±19.7) Mg C/ha (last observed year), indicating sufficiently reliable SOC estimates. Moving to Mix (37.5 ± 16.7 Mg C/ha) and Spe (36.8 ± 19.8 Mg C/ha) provided only marginal gains in accuracy, but modellers would need to apply more knowledge and a greater calibration effort than in Gen, thereby limiting the wider applicability of models.

Combining eddy covariance measurements with process-based modelling to enhance understanding of carbon exchange rates of dairy pastures.

Many temperate grasslands are used for dairying, and ongoing research aims to better understand these systems in order to increase animal production and soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. However, it is difficult to fully understand management effects on SOC because most changes are slow and difficult to distinguish from natural variability, even if changes are important over years to decades. Eddy covariance (EC) measurements can overcome this problem by continuously measuring net carbon exchange from pastures, but net balances are very sensitive to even small systematic measurement errors. Combining EC measurements with detailed process-based modelling can reduce the risks inherent in total reliance on EC measurements. Modelling can also reveal information about the underlying processes that drive observed fluxes. Here, we describe carbon exchange patterns of five paddocks situated at four different locations in New Zealand and France where EC data and detailed physiological modelling were available. The work showed that respiration by grazing animals was often only incompletely captured in EC measurements. This was most problematic when fluxes were based on gap-filling, which could have estimated incorrect fluxes during grazing periods based on observations from periods without grazing. We then aimed to extract plant physiological insights from these studies. We found appreciable carbon uptake rates even at temperatures below 0 °C. After grazing, carbon uptake was reduced for up to 2 weeks. This reduction was larger than expected from reduced leaf area after grazing, but the factors contributing to that difference have not yet been identified. Detailed physiological models can also extrapolate findings to new management regimes, environmental conditions or plant attributes. This overcomes the limitation of experimental studies, which are necessarily restricted to actual site and weather conditions allowing models to make further progress on predicting management effects on SOC.

Modelling the effects of pasture renewal on the carbon balance of grazed pastures.

In New Zealand, pasture renewal is a routine management method for maintaining pasture productivity. However, knowledge of the renewal effects on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is still limited. Here we use a process-based model, CenW, to comprehensively assess the effects of pasture renewal on the carbon balance of a temperate pasture in the Waikato region of New Zealand. We investigated the effects of renewal frequency, length of fallow period, renewal timing, and the importance and quantification of age-related reductions in productivity. Our results suggest that SOC change depends on the combined effects of renewal on gross primary productivity (GPP), autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration, carbon removal by grazing and carbon allocation to roots. Pasture renewal reduces grazing removal proportionately more than GPP because newly established plants need to allocate more carbon to re-build their root system following renewal which limits foliage production. That lengthens the time before above-ground biomass has grown sufficiently to be grazed again. New plants have a lower ratio of autotrophic respiration to GPP, however, which partly compensates for the GPP loss during renewal. Our simulations suggested an average SOC loss of 0.16 tC ha-1 yr-1 if pastures were renewed every 25 years, but could gain an average of 0.3 tC ha-1 yr-1 if pastures were renewed every year. For maximizing pasture production, the optimal renewal frequency depends on the rate of pasture deterioration with more rapid deterioration rates favouring more frequent renewal. Additionally, the length of the fallow period, renewal timing, and associated environmental conditions are important factors that can affect SOC temporally, but the importance of those effects diminishes at the annual or longer time scales. A major uncertainty for a full understanding of the renewal effect on SOC lies in the rate of pasture deterioration with time since previous renewal.

Upscaling NZ-DNDC using a regression based meta-model to estimate direct N2O emissions from New Zealand grazed pastures.

The availability of detailed input data frequently limits the application of process-based models at large scale. In this study, we produced simplified meta-models of the simulated nitrous oxide (N2O) emission factors (EF) using NZ-DNDC. Monte Carlo simulations were performed and the results investigated using multiple regression analysis to produce simplified meta-models of EF. These meta-models were then used to estimate direct N2O emissions from grazed pastures in New Zealand. New Zealand EF maps were generated using the meta-models with data from national scale soil maps. Direct emissions of N2O from grazed pasture were calculated by multiplying the EF map with a nitrogen (N) input map. Three meta-models were considered. Model 1 included only the soil organic carbon in the top 30cm (SOC30), Model 2 also included a clay content factor, and Model 3 added the interaction between SOC30 and clay. The median annual national direct N2O emissions from grazed pastures estimated using each model (assuming model errors were purely random) were: 9.6GgN (Model 1), 13.6GgN (Model 2), and 11.9GgN (Model 3). These values corresponded to an average EF of 0.53%, 0.75% and 0.63% respectively, while the corresponding average EF using New Zealand national inventory values was 0.67%. If the model error can be assumed to be independent for each pixel then the 95% confidence interval for the N2O emissions was of the order of ±0.4-0.7%, which is much lower than existing methods. However, spatial correlations in the model errors could invalidate this assumption. Under the extreme assumption that the model error for each pixel was identical the 95% confidence interval was approximately ±100-200%. Therefore further work is needed to assess the degree of spatial correlation in the model errors.

Investigating a method for estimating direct nitrous oxide emissions from grazed pasture soils in New Zealand using NZ-DNDC.

In this study, we developed emission factor (EF) look-up tables for calculating the direct nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from grazed pasture soils in New Zealand. Look-up tables of long-term average direct emission factors (and their associated uncertainties) were generated using multiple simulations of the NZ-DNDC model over a representative range of major soil, climate and management conditions occurring in New Zealand using 20 years of climate data. These EFs were then combined with national activity data maps to estimate direct N2O emissions from grazed pasture in New Zealand using 2010 activity data. The total direct N2O emissions using look-up tables were 12.7±12.1 Gg N2O-N (equivalent to using a national average EF of 0.70±0.67%). This agreed with the amount calculated using the New Zealand specific EFs (95% confidence interval 7.7-23.1 Gg N2O-N), although the relative uncertainty increased. The high uncertainties in the look-up table EFs were primarily due to the high uncertainty of the soil parameters within the selected soil categories. Uncertainty analyses revealed that the uncertainty in soil parameters contributed much more to the uncertainty in N2O emissions than the inter-annual weather variability. The effect of changes to fertiliser applications was also examined and it was found that for fertiliser application rates of 0-50 kg N/ha for sheep and beef and 60-240 kg N/ha for dairy the modelled EF was within ±10% of the value simulated using annual fertiliser application rates of 15 kg N/ha and 140 kg N/ha respectively.

Quantifying the climate-change consequences of shifting land use between forest and agriculture.

Land-use change between forestry and agriculture can cause large net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), and the respective land uses associated with forest and pasture lead to different on-going emission rates of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) and different surface albedo. Here, we quantify the overall net radiative forcing and consequent temperature change from specified land-use changes. These different radiative agents cause radiative forcing of different magnitudes and with different time profiles. Carbon emission can be very high when forests are cleared. Upon reforestation, the former carbon stocks can be regained, but the rate of carbon sequestration is much slower than the rate of carbon loss from deforestation. A production forest may undergo repeated harvest and regrowth cycles, each involving periods of C emission and release. Agricultural land, especially grazed pastures, have much higher N2O emissions than forests because of their generally higher nitrogen status that can be further enhanced through intensification of the nitrogen cycle by animal excreta. Because of its longevity in the atmosphere, N2O concentrations build up nearly linearly over many decades. CH4 emissions can be very high from ruminant animals grazing on pastures. Because of its short atmospheric longevity, the CH4 concentration from a converted pasture accumulates for only a few decades before reaching a new equilibrium when emission of newly produced CH4 is balanced by the oxidation of previously emitted CH4. Albedo changes generally have the opposite radiative forcing from those of the GHGs and partly negate their radiative forcing. Overall and averaged over 100 years, CO2 is typically responsible for 50% of radiative forcing and CH4 and N2O for 25% each. Albedo changes can negate the radiative forcing by the three greenhouse gases by 20-25%.